Demographic and Growth Data
One of the first steps in long range planning in a school district is to conduct a demographic study. PSD commissioned Strategic Resources West, Inc. to conduct a demographic study for the district beginning in 2013. The study analyzed:
- Larimer County demographics (i.e. birth rates, building permits, growth patterns)
- School capacity needs/data
- Facility construction, renovation, additions
- Real estate acquisition, trade or sales
- Intergovernmental Agreements (IGA)
- Capital construction initiatives
- Neighborhood school boundaries and enrollments
Data compiled by Strategic Resources West became the basis of the work of the long range planning group, which relied heavily on data and observable enrollment trends in developing the preliminary long range facilities planning recommendation.
In addition to the data and analysis compiled by Strategic Resources West, PSD?s Planning, Design and Construction department with the leadership of the district?s Planning Manager conducts ongoing data analysis in support of long range planning efforts. This includes:
- Ongoing evaluation of school capacity calculations and enrollments
- Annual enrollment projections
- Analysis of enrollment patterns
- Monitoring of real estate proposals, construction and sales
- Ongoing demographic study of the Poudre School District
General Growth Data
All data considered in the long range planning process indicates that the region within PSD boundaries is growing and is likely to continue to grow. The table below presents the Larimer County population forecast for the next few decades:
Enrollment in PSD is also anticipated to increase significantly over the next five years. PSD?s enrollment for the 2014-15 school year at 29,053 students already exceeds the 2015 projection by more than 500 students.
|Strategic Resources West, Inc. Projected PSD Student Enrollment|
Growth Data for Proposed New Schools
As PSD developed the preliminary long range facilities plan, significant effort was dedicated to analyzing growth and enrollment projections for potential new school sites. The tables below outline potential enrollment patterns associated with these new school sites based on current enrollment within the district.
- Southeast quadrant: Potential enrollment projections for schools in the southeast quadrant of the district potentially affected by the construction and opening of a new southeast elementary school on the east side of I-25 south of Bethke Elementary School
Northeast quadrant: The table below presents potential enrollment projections for schools in the northeast quadrant of the district potentially affected by the construction and opening of a new middle school/high school in or near Wellington
Eastern area (east of I-25): The table below presents potential enrollment projections for schools on the east side of the district potentially affected by the construction and opening of a new middle school/high school at the Prospect Site east of I-25
Information presented in the above tables is a projected snapshot of enrollment patterns and projections. More information is available in the full preliminary long range facilities plan web page.
Please note that PSD analyzes projections using a variety of statistical models. Therefore, projections like those outlined above are often presented as part of range of data that presents a breadth of potential enrollment patterns for new facilities. Also, demographic projections more than five years out are difficult to predict with accuracy as trends such as birth rates are then dependent on children who are not yet born, and economic and other factors cannot be predicted with accuracy much beyond five years into the future.